A Beirut strike that killed Hezbollah’s chief of staff on Sunday signals a growing recognition at Jerusalem that despite pacts that ended hot wars, foreign actors will fail to eliminate its enemies and that responsibility for disarming Hezbollah and Hamas is likely Israel’s alone.  

The top Hezbollah commander, Haytham Ali Tabatai, and at least four of his aides were killed Sunday night at the terror organization’s southern Beirut stronghold, the Dahiyeh district. A “treacherous Israeli attack” killed the “great commander,” Hezbollah acknowledged in a statement, adding the strike represents a “red line.”

Tabatai’s elimination was the Israel Defense Force’s “most significant operation” since the American-brokered cease-fire ended major hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah last year, a senior fellow at the Jerusalem-based Misgav Institute, Yossi Mansharof, tells the Sun. The strike is also the first at the Lebanese capital since July. 

Residents of northern Israel, where calm has been maintained for a year, are bracing for possible retaliation that could further harm their efforts to return to normalcy. Hezbollah, though, seems wary of any attack on Israel that could increase Israel’s motivation to completely reverse the organization’s rearming efforts.

“On the face of it, a Hezbollah retaliation is unlikely, but there’s no way to know so we need to be prepared for any eventuality following an IDF operation this size,” the Alma Research Center’s founder, Sarit Zehavi, tells the Sun. The center is based near the Lebanese border. 

According to the November 27, 2024, cease-fire, America is charged with monitoring the Lebanese government’s disarming of Hezbollah. The organization has been significantly weakened by the IDF’s strikes on its arsenal and top leadership, including its chief, Hasan Nasrallah.

Beirut’s prime minister, Nawaf Salam, and President Joseph Aoun have presented a roadmap to dismantle Hezbollah’s armed presence, but their efforts have stalled. The Israeli military often hits Hezbollah arms deliveries and manufacturing, as well as terror operatives. The Islamic Republic of Iran, though, has to date invested $1 billion in rearming efforts.

“We might be forced to fight in arenas that we had already fought in,” the IDF chief of staff, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, told troops Monday. His statement suggested renewed hostilities in the north. Yet it might also apply to Gaza, where Hamas has made significant strides in rebuilding power since the January cease-fire and IDF withdrawal from parts of the strip. 

“Israeli assessments increasingly show that the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, designed to disarm Hamas, won’t materialize,” Israel Hayom newspaper reported Sunday. An ally, Azerbaijan, has been considered a top candidate to field troops for the ISF, but is now reportedly telling Israel that it will be reluctant to place soldiers in harm’s way at Gaza. 

Troops of the United States Central Command, alongside representatives of several other countries, are monitoring the Gaza cease-fire from a base at the southern Israeli city of Kiryat Gat. As yet, the American monitors have not stopped what Israel’s critics say are violations of the cease-fire terms, Kan reported recently. 

Similarly, while Israel reportedly declined to notify Washington in advance of the Sunday Beirut strike, Israel still has a free hand from Washington to hit Hezbollah targets. Despite his pride of ending wars, President Trump, for now, seems to approve of Israel’s targeting of Hamas and Hezbollah. 

“There is a difference between Gaza and Lebanon,” Mr. Mansharof says. At Beirut, he says, there is a government that at least on paper is committed to end Hezbollah’s armed presence. Gaza, in contrast, is still dominated by Hamas, which systematically assassinates anyone challenging its authority. 

The Lebanese Armed Forces, though, are dominated by Shiite troops, many of whom are sympathetic to the Iran-backed Shiite terror organization. Many Shiite Lebanese also rely on a welfare system maintained by Hezbollah and Iran for decades.. 

Iranians and Hezbollah officials are threatening to avenge the Tabatai killing. Yet they are torn about the severity of the retaliation. The organization is in shambles, its ranks divided, and its current chief, Naim Qassem, lacks the late Nasrallah’s charisma.

The IDF nevertheless is on high alert and ready for a new round of hostilities. Some Israelis even relish an opportunity to further damage Hezbollah and end its recent regrouping efforts. “Under my leadership we won’t allow Hezbollah to rearm,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday.