A new survey from a highly rated New York pollster raises a critical question for the House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries: Will Governor Hochul’s historic unpopularity cost him his speakership?

The governor has proven toxic in the House districts that Democrats need to flip in order to win the majority, and running against her leadership may help vulnerable GOP members hold on even in the event of Vice President Harris’s victory in November. 

A poll released Thursday from Siena College shows Ms. Hochul’s favorability rating has plummeted among Republicans and independents, and her standing among her fellow Democrats isn’t much better. She has a favorable rating of just 34 percent, and an unfavorable rating of 54 percent — a 20-point deficit. Among independents, she has just an 18 percent favorable rating and a 68 percent unfavorable rating. Democrats approve of her job performance to the tune of just 52 percent, while 35 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her. 

She is so unpopular that even President Trump — a man who lost his home state by landslides in both 2016 and 2020 — has a higher favorable rating. The poll finds that 39 percent of New Yorkers have a positive view of the former president. 

Ms. Hochul’s abysmal favorable rating raises the possibility of five House Republicans holding on to their seats in what should be a relatively difficult year for them. Congressmen Mike Lawler, Anthony D’Esposito, Nick LaLota, Brandon Williams, and Marc Molinaro helped deliver the four-seat House Republican majority for Speaker McCarthy and later Speaker Johnson, and Democrats had viewed them as the most beatable incumbents this year. Mr. Jeffries himself has been focusing intensely on the race, raising money for the five Democrats who are challenging the GOP lawmakers. 

But Ms. Hochul’s approval rating in the five men’s respective regions isn’t likely to help Mr. Jeffries’ chances at winning the speaker’s gavel. Mr. Lawler, Mr. D’Esposito, and Mr. LaLota all represent suburban districts — Mr. Lawler just north of Westchester County and Mr. D’Esposito and Mr. LaLota on Long Island. According to the Siena poll, Ms. Hochul has an approval rating of just 31 percent in suburban areas, and an unfavorable rating of 49 percent. 

Mr. Molinaro’s district stretches from the Hudson Valley westward to Ithaca, and Mr. Williams represents Syracuse and the surrounding rural areas. In the upstate region, Ms. Hochul’s favorable rating  currently sits at just 30 percent, while her unfavorable rating is 61 percent. 

Ms. Hochul was widely blamed for costing her party the majority in the House two years ago. A debacle over redistricting and Ms. Hochul’s historically bad performance as a Democratic candidate for governor that year helped Messrs. Lawler, D’Esposito, LaLota, Williams, and Molinaro narrowly win their races. 

Speaker Pelosi said as much during an event at the Democratic National Convention this year. She said that the “five seats in New York” were the reason why Mr. Jeffries was not made speaker in 2023. “I think it [was] related to the gubernatorial race,” she remarked at a CNN–Politico event. 

A spokesman for Ms. Hochul did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this story. 

Democrats had some hopes that Ms. Hochul could course-correct for 2024 when a decision from the state’s highest court empowered her to redraw the state’s district maps. Liberals wanted her to draw lines in such a way as to make it nearly impossible for the five New York congressional Republicans to survive their races this year — similar to what Republicans have done to Democrats in North Carolina and Florida. 

Ultimately, she failed to do so. A senior editor for the Cook Political Report, Dave Wasserman, wrote in February that Ms. Hochul’s redrawn congressional district maps for 2024 would have minimal impact on Republicans’ ability to hold on to their congressional seats this year. “With Gov. Kathy Hochul’s signature, the re-redistricting wars of 2024 have likely drawn to a close. The new NY map nets Dems perhaps half a seat vs. the current court-drawn plan,” Mr. Wasserman wrote. Four of the five House districts lean slightly in favor of the Democrats, but not in a way that serious imperils Republicans’ chances at getting reelected.

Ms. Hochul’s unpopularity also seems to be having an effect on the presidential race. The same Siena poll that gauged the governor’s approval rating found Ms. Harris running well behind President Biden’s margin of victory in the Empire State just four years ago. Mr. Biden won the state by more than 23 points in 2020. Ms. Harris now leads Trump by only 13 in this year’s presidential election. 

“New York remains solidly ‘blue’ but perhaps not as deep blue as it has been in the last several presidential cycles. In the six presidential elections this century, Democrats have carried New York by at least 18 points, and at least 22 points in five of the six. President Biden won here by 23 points in 2020,” the Siena College pollster, Steven Greenberg, said in a statement. “With less than seven weeks till election day, Harris leads Trump head-to-head by 13 points, little changed from 14 points last month, and by 12 points in a multi-candidate race, unchanged from August.