A crowd gathered around a New York City mayoral candidate, Zohran Mamdani, on Saturday as he lay on his back, struggling to bench press 135 pounds as part of the annual Men’s Day event at Brooklyn. Mayor Eric Adams derided him as “Mamscrawny,” but almost no one else seemed to care. Weightlifting isn’t a requirement for being mayor.

Fighting crime is. That’s Mr. Mamdani’s vulnerability — and the reason this race is far from over.

As the race stands, Mr. Mamdani leads comfortably, with a former governor, Andrew Cuomo, in second place, and the Republican nominee, Curtis Sliwa trailing, followed by Mr. Adams.

Every poll and every analysis of the race raises the issue: What if one or more candidates drops out? It’s not going to happen. Politicians are legends in their own minds. Each one is convinced this is his or her race to win.

Yet even in the crowded field, a Mamdani victory is not inevitable. The American Pulse Research poll done on August 14 points to Mr. Mamdani’s vulnerability: crime. When voters are reminded of Mr. Mamdani’s negative views on policing and incarceration, his voter approval wavers.

There’s been almost no discussion of who would govern in a Mamdani administration — who would be his deputy mayors, oversee the budget, run the agencies. The one critical exception is the New York City Police Department. 

The Partnership for New York’s Kathryn Wylde and New York’s attorney general, Letitia James, have urged Mr. Mamdani to keep on the NYPD commissioner, Jessica Tisch.

That’s fantasy thinking or a deliberate effort to mislead the public about Mr. Mamdani’s policies. Ms. Tisch and Mr. Mamdani are like oil and water.

Start with quality-of-life crimes, like shoplifting less than $1,000 worth of goods, public urination, and assault without a weapon. Mr. Mamdani laid out his views in a candidate questionnaire for news site the City, explaining that his goal is to have fewer people incarcerated before trial, as well as fewer prosecuted, period. He blames these antisocial acts on a failure of the social safety net and sees no role for cops.

Ms. Tisch, on the other hand, is outraged that too few quality-of-life crimes ever get prosecuted. “Imagine how disheartening it is for our cops to be out there arresting the same people for the same crimes in the same neighborhoods day after day. And how scary it is for New Yorkers to see the same person who victimized them one day walking the streets the next,” she says.

Ms. Tisch is laser-focused on going after the quality-of-life crimes that Mr. Mamdani seeks to normalize. She says, “When you see toothpaste behind lock and key at a local pharmacy or public urination or people shooting up on the corner with impunity, it doesn’t have to be this way.”

Ms. Tisch and Mr. Mamdani also take opposite views on how to deal with the violent mentally ill on the streets and in the subways — people like the late Jordan Neely, who died in a chokehold after intimidating a car full of subway riders.

Ms. Tisch has urged the state to increase hospital capacity for involuntary commitment. “Our cops bring people to the hospital thousands of times a year who are in mental health distress. They get released two hours later with a sandwich,” she says.

Mr. Mamdani opposes treating the mentally ill against their will, stating that “people’s rights to make their own mental health care decisions should not be compromised.” Mr. Mamdani says city social workers, not cops, should treat the violently ill on their own terms, even if that means on the street or in a subway.

Never mind the rights of people riding to work who are scared out of their minds by a raving vagrant screaming in their face.

Ms. Tisch has made it clear she disagrees with Mr. Mamdani’s approach.

Under a Mayor Mamdani, New York City would become a hellhole of bedlam and criminal chaos.

If in the coming months New Yorkers witness a crime that puts public safety at the top of voters’ concerns, the American Pulse Research poll suggests support for Mr. Mamdani will fall short.

Some 469,000 Democrats ranked Mr. Mamdani their first choice in the primary. In a low-turnout general election that would be a winning number. Yet with turnout hitting 50 percent or more — a reasonable expectation in a race that is already receiving national attention — Mr. Mamdani’s 469,000 is no longer a winning number, and the issue of crime puts a ceiling on his support.

Mayor of New York City is a big job — overseeing 300,000 employees, dozens of departments and agencies, and services from public schooling to public hospitals. Mr. Mamdani has never run anything, except a five-person assembly office.

Who would actually run the city — including the NYPD — in a Mamdani administration? Voters need to start asking questions now.

Creators.com