The first American leader of the Catholic church, Pope Leo XIV, spent Turkey Day in Turkey, preaching peace at the start of a five-day trip that will also include Lebanon, where war clouds are gathering fast.

Lebanon has the largest Christian community in the Arab world. The country’s Maronites are on average more affluent than other denominations and many have dual citizenship, which makes it easier for them to flee a country that for decades has been an arena for proxy wars.

This week Lebanon marks the first anniversary of a cease-fire agreement that ended a war Hezbollah launched on Israel on October 8, 2023. As the Lebanese Armed Forces is failing to disarm the terror group according to the terms of the 2024 agreement, Israel might launch a full-scale assault on Hezbollah strongholds, and do so before the year’s end.     

“For Lebanon’s Christians, the pope’s visit comes at the right moment, because the country is so polarized, so maybe he will provide a message of unity,” a New York-based Christian Lebanese correspondent for the National newspaper, Adla Massoud, tells The New York Sun. Lebanon, she notes, “is the only place where you still have a Christian community.”

Turkey, meanwhile, is growing increasingly Islamist under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as it turns away from the secularism of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. The days when Istanbul was Constantinople are all but forgotten. In a country of 85 million people, there are now no more than 200,000 Christian Turks.  

The country’s Christians “desire to contribute positively to the unity of your country,” the pontiff said Thursday. “They are, and they feel, part of Turkish identity.”

Mr. Erdogan, a backer of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, thanked Pope Leo for his “astute stance on the Palestinian issue.” The Turkish president uses ever-escalating strong language in speeches to denounce Israel, inciting Muslims in the country and around the world to oppose the Jewish state.

As the pope launched his tour Thursday, Israel’s internal security agency, Shabak, uncovered a Turkish-originated plot to transfer arms and funds to Hamas in the West Bank. 

“Today, the whole of humanity, afflicted by violence and conflict, is crying out for reconciliation,” Pope Leo said Friday at Iznik, a Christian heritage town in Turkey. “We must strongly reject the use of religion for justifying war, violence, or any form of fundamentalism or fanaticism,” choosing instead “fraternal encounter, dialogue and cooperation.”  

At Beirut, the Christian president, Joseph Aoun, and its Sunni prime minister, Nawaf Salam, are calling for direct dialog with the Jewish state. “The language of negotiation is more important than the language of war,” Mr. Aoun said in early November. “We’ve seen what war did to us.” 

The idea of a peace agreement with Israel is no longer taboo in Lebanon, especially among the country’s Christians. Yet “nothing like that can happen before the impasse with Hezbollah is resolved,” a Beirut source tells the Sun, adding that an Israeli all-out war to disarm Hezbollah could be launched “right after Christmas.” 

In a last attempt to pressure the Lebanese government to increase efforts to disarm Hezbollah, America’s ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, and President Trump’s envoy to Lebanon, Morgan Ortagus, are expected to join members of the UN Security Council in a Beirut visit next Friday, following the pope’s departure on Tuesday.

Many of the UN council’s members are expected to denounce Israel, including over last weekend’s strike at Beirut that killed Hezbollah’s chief of staff, Ali Tabtabai. Mr. Trump, in contrast, “supports Israel’s right to defend itself and to take out any terrorist threats in the region,” the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said Tuesday. 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a small group of top security officials on Thursday to discuss Israel’s next moves in Lebanon. Since the November 27, 2024, cease-fire agreement Tehran has spent more than $1 billion in efforts to replenish the Hezbollah military infrastructure that was largely decimated during the war.

“Hezbollah is recovering day by day, and patience, both Israel’s and America’s, is beginning to run out, which may lead to an escalation in activity,” an unidentified Israeli official told the Jerusalem Post. Pope Leo will join prayers of Lebanese who might hope for a miracle that could avert such an escalation.