Cratering support among New York City Democrats for Israel is shaping up as a potential factor in the mayoral race — and fueling the candidacy of the Marxist mayoral aspirant Zohran Mamdani. For anyone concerned about the future of Israeli-American ties — and for the character of what, in New York City, has long been a global center for Jewish culture and politics — recent polling numbers are nothing short of startling.

Nearly two years after Hamas’s attack on Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023, a survey conducted by the Times and Siena University finds that “New Yorkers now broadly sympathize with Palestinians over Israelis in the ongoing conflict.” In what the Times depicts as a “yawning gap of perspectives,” 44 percent of registered voters at New York City favored the Palestinian Arab cause, while “26 percent sympathized more with Israel.” 

The findings were “particularly stark,” per the Times, “given that the city is home to the largest Jewish population outside Israel.” Among Democrats the numbers are even more deplorable. Just 18 percent of members of the party of Truman, who leapt to recognize the Jewish state upon its declaration of independence in 1948, say they sympathize more with Israel in its “dispute” with the Palestinians. Some 57 percent favor the Palestinians.

Among younger voters there’s still higher support for the Palestinians. For voters between 18 and 29, some 67 percent back the Palestinians; just 13 percent favor Israel. For those between 30 and 44, some 57 percent support the Palestinians as against 20 percent for Israel. For those 65 and older, 38 percent favor the Jewish state, while 28 percent back the Palestinians. The Times and Siena poll, too, illuminates trends in the mayoral contest.

Among those registered voters who express a preference for Mr. Mamdani, a whopping 74 percent favor the Palestinian cause, with but 5 percent supporting Israel in its fight for survival. This could serve to bely the claim, endorsed by a majority of the survey respondents, that denies any equivalence between animus for Israel and antisemitism. “Voters broadly think that criticizing Israel is not inherently antisemitic,” per the Times, “51 percent to 31 percent.”

Such views, the Times reports, “have filtered down to the mayor’s race,” in which Mr. Mamdani is leading. Mr. Mamdani, the Democratic Socialist candidate, has “aligned himself firmly with the plight of Palestinians,” and repeats the libel that Israel’s conduct of the war against Hamas amounts to a “genocide.” The Times tries to palm off on its noble readers the idea that Mr. Mamdani’s opponents have “misread the electorate.” 

It’s a testament to the depth of Mr. Mamdani’s hostility toward the Jewish state that he has even mooted the idea of ordering the NYPD to arrest Israel’s democratically chosen leader, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, should the premier visit New York City. No wonder, then, that a Quinnipiac poll finds that just 21 percent of Jewish New Yorkers back Mr. Mamdani’s candidacy, and 75 percent have an unfavorable view of him. 

There was a time when such numbers might have derailed a bid for Gracie Mansion. In the 1950s, New York had 2 million Jews. Today, there are fewer than a million residing here. A fast-rising Muslim population is, as these columns have reported, shaping up as a potentially decisive demographic. With many, including President Trump, resigned to a Mamdani mayoralty, these portents could spell trouble for America, Israel, and the Democrats.