Those who said Iran was far from having a nuclear bomb when Israel launched Operation Rising Lion now claim that after Operation Midnight Hammer that bomb is nigh. We do not claim to know the full results of either operation. According to a preliminary Pentagon “low confidence” assessment, the 12-day war set back the Iranian nuclear capabilities by a few months at most. Israelis say Iran’s program was slowed down by two years or more. 

Even Tehran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, acknowledges that the program suffered “serious damage.” According to estimates it cost Iran at least $500 billion to build, including in sanctions losses. Yet, nuclear watchers say the Iranians might have stashed away some, or even all, of the 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium they amassed before the mid-June war started. President Trump said today that this cache is buried “under millions of tons of rock.” 

Even so, Mr. Trump acknowledges that further inspections will be needed — either by the International Atomic Energy Agency or by “somebody that we respect, and that includes ourselves.” If the intelligence shows that Iran is reconstructing the program, he said, America “without question, absolutely,” will strike again. Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, says the Jewish state will maintain air superiority and “act consistently” to prevent Iran from re-arming. 

All of which adds up more to “trust but verify” than to doubts that the Israeli and American militaries have spectacularly redrawn the Mideast map. The Islamic Republic’s dash to a bomb loomed large over the region for more than two decades, and it was nearing its goal on June 12. A country that seeks peaceful nuclear energy has no use for highly enriched uranium. It doesn’t hide its centrifuges in deeply dug bunkers or amass ballistic missiles capable of carrying nukes.  

In a press briefing this week, the chairman of the joint chiefs, General Dan “Raising” Caine, told of how in 2009 two engineers were shown suspicious Iranian constructions near the holy city of Qum. For 15 years they “lived and breathed” Fordow, he said, and tailored the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator to demolish that nuclear facility. Israel then cleared Iranian skies, American B-2 bombers dropped MOPs, and the region will never be the same. 

The Islamic Republic’s leader, Ali Khamanei, is humiliated. He boasts of “victory,” but the Iranian public’s fear of his henchmen is reduced. His attempt at surrounding Israel in a “ring of fire” is gone. Hezbollah and Hamas are spent, and President Assad is exiled at Moscow. The new Damascus dictator, Ahmad al-Sharaa, is seeking peace with Israel, and Mr. Trump’s Mideast envoy, Steven Witkoff, predicts other former enemies will soon join the Abraham Accords.   

In 1981 President Reagan condemned Prime Minister Begin for demolishing Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirak. President Bush turned a blind eye to Israel’s 2007 destruction of a Syrian plant. Now Mr. Trump’s America is adopting the Begin doctrine: No Mideast country sworn to destroy Israel can have a nuclear weapon. If and when diplomacy and global pacts, like the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty, fail, let the bombers do the job.     

A former IAEA chief, Hans Blix, once told our Benny Avni that bombing Osirak only encouraged Saddam Hussein to rush to a bomb. Yet, Iraq never resurrected its nuclear program afterward. The Vienna-based agency correctly condemns Iran for violating the NPT. Referees, though, never win games. The IAEA’s job is to document Iran’s progress toward achieving its dream of erasing Israel off the map. Israel and America will provide the alarm clocks.