On November 4, voters will go to the polls at New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia. These three elections may teach us a lot about how voters feel about where the country is — and where they want it to go.

Two of these elections would typically be a lock for Democrats. But there are a lot of cross currents in this highly polarized, extraordinarily uncertain environment.

Since midterm elections traditionally have dramatically smaller turnouts, a major test of this election is whether those who voted for President Trump in 2024 participate. There is some evidence that the election never really ended. 

The scale of the 2,600 “No Kings” rallies indicates that the left remains in full campaign mode. 

However, as Seth Keshel continuously points out in his study of voter registration, there is a steady migration out of the Democratic Party toward the Republican Party. He estimates that Republicans have had a net gain of more than 1.2 million registrations since the election. In virtually every state, Democrats are weaker, and Republicans are stronger.

The announcement by a former White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, that she no longer finds the Democratic Party acceptable is one more example of the attrition that is weakening the formerly dominant party.

While the Democrats seem leaderless and confused, Republicans have been rallying to Mr. Trump and his action-oriented administration.

The rise of Mr. Trump and the MAGA movement have consolidated rural and small town America. Similarly, Democrats can no longer take African American voters for granted.

Early voting patterns indicate that the Trump base is motivated and voting. Since the president can reach hundreds of thousands of voters in one call — or millions with one TV appearance — his potential to increase turnout in New Jersey and Virginia is considerable.

In both states, polling shows Republicans seem to be closing the gap on the two Democrats (who seemed likely winners two months ago). 

The nastiness and viciousness of the attack ads by Democrats Mike Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia indicate their internal polls show the races are close.  

Two Republicans, a former congressman, Jack Ciattarelli, in New Jersey and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia, are closer to winning today than they were a month ago. If momentum means anything, it could be a good night for the GOP.

Historically, with a Republican in the White House, the two states would go Democratic. If Democrats lose one or both governorships, they should take a deep breath and consider why their party is losing the registration struggle. 

Even if they win by narrow margins, this election will be a signal of the Democratic Party’s decay — despite every effort by the propaganda press to prop them up.

The race which may have the greatest impact on 2026 and beyond is in New York City. As of today, Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani seems likely to win the mayoral race. This will make one of the most visible Democrats in the country a big-government socialist with extreme ideas and values. 

Mr. Mamdani would be the most openly antisemitic elected official in America. A Democratic Party with Mr. Mamdani’s radicalism and deeply pro-Hamas bias will be a major factor driving the Democrats into permanent minority status for a generation or more.

This could be a bellwether election with far-reaching impacts.